Foreword
Cost increases ahead. But uncertainty will be the real test.
Dr Alan Manuel
Group Chief Executive Officer
Currie & Brown
In 2026, construction will keep moving. But it will be harder to move with confidence. The people who shape the built environment are making decisions in harder conditions than we’ve seen for some time.
Our predicted global construction cost escalation for 2026 is 2.4%. That headline figure is strongly influenced by conditions in China, so it does not reflect what most markets will see. In the majority of countries, forecast cost increases sit in a moderate 2% to 6% range. Construction activity will continue to grow.
Yet confidence remains fragile among many organisations making major project decisions.
When I speak to governments, developers, investors and asset owners, I see volatility shaping decision-making. Projects are being scrutinised more closely. Decisions are taking longer. Programmes are being rephased and reprioritised rather than cancelled. That is not because the case for building has weakened. It is because delivery conditions are harder to read and harder to manage.
The issue in 2026 will not be cost itself. It is the uncertainty beneath it, and the difficulty of knowing how, where and when challenges might hit. Labour shortages, shifting trade tariffs, supply chain disruption, energy pricing volatility, climate events, conflict and policy changes are all impacting construction delivery. These risks are connected. A shift in one area can quickly create problems in another. While these pressures are global, their impacts are local, varying by country, city, sector and supply chain. That is why successful delivery depends on both deep local expertise and a clear understanding of how global forces can change conditions on the ground.
Last year, our Construction Certainty Index gave us a clear picture of delivery confidence around the world. It showed that confidence is lacking across all regions and sectors. It was weakest where change is hardest to handle, especially around risk, technology adoption and, in many cases, sustainability. Our view was clear. To deliver projects well in uncertain conditions, organisations need good data early, technology applied with intent, and experienced people who can interpret what it means and act on it.
That conclusion matters more now, as volatility becomes a defining feature of delivery.
Resilience needs a new definition in 2026. It is about agility.
Not agility as improvisation. Agility by design. That means using data early to test scenarios, understand where your programme is exposed, and make clear choices before options narrow. It also means deciding what you will lock in, what you will keep flexible, and how you will respond when conditions shift.
This is where certainty becomes practical. It comes from early insight, disciplined governance, and the judgement to act at pace. Data and technology matter, but only when they help decision-makers test options properly, make clear calls, and keep control through delivery.
This report looks ahead. It draws on what we are seeing across regions and sectors. It also looks at what this means for the decisions being made now by those committing capital, shaping portfolios, planning projects and carrying risk. The aim is to provide clarity on where delivery pressure is building, and how to maintain momentum with control.
Global heat map
Heat map showing anticipated construction cost escalation in 2026. We predict that construction costs will increase across almost every one of our operating regions in the year ahead. The extent of these varies from market to market, but common drivers are clear.