5
Capability gap
Two groups are emerging: those investing through uncertainty, and those pulling back.
But investment alone does not create certainty; the difference is whether it builds capability across data, technology, sustainability, skills and risk management.
A two-speed market is opening up
Uncertainty is splitting the market. The divide is clearest in digital and sustainability: two areas that should help organisations build resilience.
Digital adoption has accelerated for 35% of respondents as a direct response to uncertainty but slowed for 40%. Sustainability investment shows a similar split: 40% have increased investment, while 40% have reduced it.
This is the two-speed market. Among respondents who say uncertainty has accelerated digital adoption and increased sustainability investment, 67% are confident their projects will meet deadlines. 61% are confident they will stay within budget. That compares with 46% and 40% across the full sample.
The organisations investing through uncertainty are more confident, but they also report more risk. They expect more risks to increase and report a higher average cost impact from uncertainty. Their pipeline is also more likely to be significantly affected by project descoping and cancellations. A reaction to uncertainty does not necessarily build resilience.
Activity is not capability
The question isn’t whether organisations are doing more, but whether they’re building the capability to make better decisions. Are they investing with maturity?
For this analysis, maturity is not defined by confidence or reported performance. It is defined by the capabilities that help organisations see risk earlier, understand its impact and act.
We focused on five markers that show whether technology, data, sustainability and skills are being used in a strategic and practical way:
Greater use of AI to identify, monitor or mitigate risk
Digital capability influencing project or asset decisions
Data analytics seen as effective in mitigating uncertainty
Sustainability embedded into delivery
Investment in skills or training
Higher-maturity organisations are those with four or more of these five markers. This group represents 32% of the full sample.
Higher-maturity organisations are more confident on delivery. 58% are confident projects will meet deadlines, compared with 41% of lower-maturity organisations. On budget, 47% of higher maturity organisations are confident, compared with 36%.
They are also less likely to report severe pipeline impacts, including delays, cancellations and significant financial loss.
Higher-maturity organisations are not immune to uncertainty. No one is. But they appear harder to knock off balance.
That is the deeper gap opening up in the market. Not just between those investing and those pulling back, but between those building capability and those adding activity without enough change behind it.
“You shouldn't do AI for AI’s sake. You need the digital backbone to give you the data for good, governed decisions. AI can help fast-track documentation and guide project managers, but subject matter experts still need to review and approve it. If it makes projects faster or more predictable, you should do it. If it doesn't, you shouldn't.”
Peter Harrison
Head of Project Management Framework GSK
From mindset to muscle
Last year, when we launched the Construction Certainty Index in our report, Building certainty in an era of relentless change, we talked about two types of uncertainty.
There is the uncertainty the industry cannot control: inflation, weather, labour shortages, supply chain disruption and geopolitical shocks. These risks cannot be removed, but their impact can be forecast, tested and mitigated.
Then there is the uncertainty the industry creates for itself: incomplete designs, unclear decisions, incomplete data collection, rigid processes and poor communication. These are within the industry’s control. Left unchecked, they make projects slower to respond when external shocks hit.
Organisations cannot wait for calmer conditions. They need the capability to see risk, make decisions and adjust plans with confidence. Even the best tools will not help if the way decisions are made stays the same.
Last year, the message was about building an adaptable mindset. In 2026, mindset has to become muscle.
That doesn't mean lurching from one reaction to the next. It also doesn't mean sitting still and waiting for calmer conditions. Neither builds certainty.
Organisations need a more deliberate approach. They need to understand where they are exposed, how potential risks and future uncertainties could affect time, cost and value, and where investment will make the biggest difference.
That brings us back to three critical levers: technology, data and people. Each depends on the others.
Technology alone does not create certainty. It only helps when teams have reliable data, clear governance and experienced people who understand the project context.
Data should not just look backwards. It should connect cost, programme, procurement, carbon and supply chain, so project teams can see what is changing and decide what to do next.
People turn insight into action. They need the skills to question the data, understand the trade-offs and make decisions together. Shared tools help teams work from the same information and act earlier.
Capability has to be built around the decisions that matter most. Technology, data and people only build certainty when they work together around those decisions.
The organisations that turn these levers into daily decision-making will be better placed to protect value when conditions change.
Case study
Keeping a complex port programme under control
The Port of Tilbury wanted to significantly expand its freight roll-on/roll-off and aggregate processing capacity. As a major London port, it needed to do this while keeping river operations running
In this demanding environment, we identified and helped resolve key issues around groundworks, safely containing contamination, protecting ecology and wildlife, and protecting existing utilities.
As employer’s representative and programme manager, we managed the construction contracts and monitored, measured and reported progress. By measuring and reporting what was happening across the project, we gave the team one clear and consistent view of how the work was progressing.
That visibility helped give the team stronger control. As changes emerged, we could identify them and understand their impact. This helped the team make informed decisions, manage risk and reduce uncertainty.
Better information and a disciplined approach to change helped reduce risk, save time and keep a firm grip on the budget.