3
What is uncertainty costing construction in 2026?
Every project carries risk. The problem is when that risk has not been fully understood, priced or planned for early enough.
That is when uncertainty starts to add cost.
Senior construction leaders say uncertainty has increased their construction pipeline costs by an average of 12.4% over the last year. Applied to forecast global construction spending, that equates to almost US$2tn in 2026.3
12.4%
average increase in pipeline costs due to uncertainty
Almost $2tn
in additional cost to global construction in 2026
Equivalent to
20,000 $100m projects
Equivalent to
4,000 $500m programmes
More than $5bn
every day being absorbed into project and pipeline costs
Enough to build 2,000 hospitals
This is cost already being felt across projects and pipelines: through higher prices, stretched budgets, changed scope, delayed decisions and projects that do not move forward.
3 See appendix for methodology.
The cost goes beyond construction
27%
projects descoped (scaled back)
30%
project delayed
26%
project cancelled
Construction is central to economic and social progress. It delivers the infrastructure that economies need to grow and communities need to function.
Uncertainty is changing how investment decisions are made. Damien Perrot of Accor describes how cost and financing conditions are affecting hotel renovation, while also shifting attention towards conversion.
“Uncertainty has changed the way owners think about investment. Many hotels are not being renovated because higher costs have made financing harder. At Accor, our response has been to adapt: to make our brands more conversion-friendly, create specific offers for independent hotels, and revise our design strategy around design-to-cost. The principle is simple: same brand, same DNA, same experience, different design intensity. We have to minimise the cost of innovation and maximise the impact.”
— Damien Perrot, Global Chief Design, Technical Services & Innovation Officer PM&E, Accor
Pipeline data shows the effect of uncertainty.
Over the last 12 months, delays affected an average of 30% of pipeline projects. Cancellations affected 26%, and descoping, 27%.
Respondents estimate that 31% of potential projects have not started or progressed beyond planning because of uncertainty.
Uncertainty continues to drag on the whole pipeline. Projects are being delayed, reshaped, cancelled or held back before they move into delivery.
The cost of uncertainty affects how quickly capital becomes useful: whether assets open on time, whether services reach people sooner, and whether investment remains available for future priorities.
At this scale, uncertainty is not just making construction more expensive. It is shaping what the world can afford to build.
“We’re focusing on the things within our control so projects can be delivered more predictably and faster. If we can do that, medicines get to patients quicker. If we are more predictable across the portfolio, it also releases more money for innovation. The aim is to achieve that with the right level of governance within the operating model.”
— Peter Harrison, Head of Project Management Framework, GSK
“A 12.4% cost increase is significant in any market. At a global level, almost US$2tn is a number the industry cannot afford to ignore. And in some countries and sectors, the impact is higher still.
This is not sustainable. Construction must deliver the assets economies and communities need. To do that, we have to get better at seeing where uncertainty is adding cost, where the pressure is greatest and where action is needed before projects lose time, money or momentum.”
Dr Alan Manuel Group Chief Executive Officer Currie & Brown
“A 12.4% cost increase is significant in any market. At a global level, almost US$2tn is a number the industry cannot afford to ignore. And in some countries and sectors, the impact is higher still.
This is not sustainable. Construction must deliver the assets economies and communities need. To do that, we have to get better at seeing where uncertainty is adding cost, where the pressure is greatest and where action is needed before projects lose time, money or momentum.”
Dr Alan Manuel Group Chief Executive Officer Currie & Brown
Case study
Controlling change before it becomes cost
When a fast-growing life sciences organisation in Germany needed to expand its research capability, the wider market was already uncertain. The client needed a new 21,000m² laboratory and office facility, while keeping control of cost, programme and long-term performance.
That challenge was made more complex by rapidly evolving research needs. We helped turn change into a controlled decision process, testing each proposed variation for its impact on cost, programme and operations before it was approved.
The process was supported by better collaboration, robust data and shared digital information. By aligning governance and reporting across the project team and using a digital model to provide a data-driven view of progress, decisions could be made with clearer accountability and fewer surprises.
The result? Cost savings against the approved budget and a facility designed for long-term performance. A clear example of how collaboration, data and disciplined decision-making can help organisations manage change before it becomes cost uncertainty.