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Executive Summary
The 2026 Construction Certainty Index shows uncertainty is rife. And confidence in delivery is falling sharply across the areas that matter most: time and budget.
Built with insights from more than 1,300 construction decision-makers worldwide, the Index benchmarks construction delivery confidence across regions and sectors. The associated research explores the factors shaping that confidence, including cost, schedule, risk, technology, sustainability and skills.
The findings point to five clear conclusions.
1.
Uncertainty is adding real cost
Respondents estimate that uncertainty (risks that are not sufficiently understood, quantified or mitigated) has added more than 12% to their construction pipeline costs over the last year. Applied to forecast global construction spending, this equates to almost US$2tn in 2026.2
2.
Confidence is falling where it matters most
The Index shows that delivery confidence has fallen since last year, with the biggest drops in time and budget.
Only 46% of respondents are confident their projects will meet deadlines. Only 40% are confident they can stay within budget.
That marks a significant change from 2025. Confidence is down from around six in ten to fewer than half for meeting deadlines, and from 54% to 40% for staying within budget.
3.
Risks are becoming harder to plan around
Respondents expect conditions to worsen over the next 12 to 24 months.
Leaders expect material and energy prices to increase. Meanwhile, technological change keeps intensifying. And the common industry issues of skills shortages and disruption to supply chains are not going away.
4.
The market is splitting in its response
Organisations are responding to uncertainty in different ways.
Some are accelerating digital adoption. Others are slowing it down. Some are increasing sustainability investment. Others are reducing it.
This points to a two-speed market. But doing more does not automatically create certainty. The data shows that organisations need to invest strategically to build capability.
5.
Capability is the real advantage
Our survey shows a clear gap: one third of organisations are taking a more mature approach to building capability.
Higher-maturity organisations are those showing strength across four or more of five areas: AI for risk management, digital integration, data analytics, embedded sustainability, and investment in skills or training.
Higher-maturity organisations are more confident on time and budget. They are also less likely to report delays, cancellations, stalled projects and major financial loss.
They’re not immune to uncertainty. But they appear better equipped to navigate its consequences.
2 See appendix for methodology.