1. Research summary

Building certainty in an era of relentless change is based on research conducted by Sapio Research in May 2025, surveying 1,060 senior decision-makers involved in construction and infrastructure planning.

Participants were from the healthcare, high-tech, education, real estate, hospitality, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, and renewable energy sectors. They represented organisations from 20 to 10,000+ employees, across the UK, Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific.

The findings provide a global snapshot of how uncertainty is affecting construction pipelines, investment in sustainability, technology adoption, and overall project confidence.

2. Average pipeline loss—methodology

We asked respondents to estimate how much of their construction pipeline had been lost in the past 12 months due to the following: project delays, cost overruns, supply chain disruptions, material cost inflation and energy price volatility.

Responses were given in percentage bands (eg “less than 5%”, “5-10%”). We used a midpoint-weighted average method. Each band was assigned a midpoint value (eg 2.5% for “less than 5%”), then multiplied by the number of valid responses. “Don’t know” answers were excluded.

We avoided double-counting overlaps between issues by averaging the five individual scores. This gave us a combined pipeline loss rate of 13.7%.

To calculate a financial value, we used separate responses on total construction pipeline size. The same method produced an average pipeline value of $12.9 billion. Applying the 13.7% loss rate gives an estimated $2.1 billion lost per organisation due to uncertainty.

3. Global loss estimate—methodology

To project the wider impact, we extrapolated survey findings to a global level. S&P Global forecasts that global construction spending will reach $15.6 trillion in 2025.

Assuming this figure reflects activity after uncertainty-related losses (ie 86.3% of full potential), we reverse-calculated the theoretical construction spend without uncertainty. Dividing $15.6 trillion by 0.863 gives a potential value of $18.1 trillion.

The gap between the two ($2.5 trillion) represents theoretical pipeline spend lost globally due to uncertainty.

4. Equivalency calculations—methodology

To illustrate the financial impact of uncertainty, we translated reported losses into relatable equivalents.

$2.1 billion equivalent (average financial loss due to uncertainty per organisation)

This figure was expressed as enough to fund:

— Two large hospitals: A hospital with 200-300 beds in a developed economy typically costs $500 million to $1 billion, depending on complexity and site conditions.

— Up to 40 high schools: With high schools ranging from $50 million to $100 million each, $2.1 billion could fund 20 to 40 high schools.

$2.5 trillion equivalent (value lost from construction activity globally this year)

To convey the scale of this figure, we compared it to:

— Global tech revenues: Nearly twice the combined 2024-25 revenue of Amazon ($670B), Apple ($391B), and Microsoft ($282B).

— A G7 economy: Equivalent to Italy’s 2024 GDP of $2.37 trillion.

— 500 major airports: At an average cost of $5 billion each, $2.5 trillion could fund 500 new airports.

All figures are estimates and rounded for simplicity.

5. The relationship between AI adoption and delivery confidence—methodology

This table compares high adopters—organisations using AI regularly across most or all projects—with non-adopters who have yet to use AI. It shows the percentage of respondents who said they were very or completely confident in meeting project goals. While the pharmaceutical and hospitality and leisure sectors each had fewer than 30 respondents in the high-adopter and non-adopter categories, we have included all sectors. The trend is clear: organisations adopting AI report significantly greater certainty in achieving their project goals than those who do not.

6. Currie & Brown Construction Certainty Index—methodology

The Currie & Brown Construction Certainty Index measures confidence in delivering projects on time, on budget, and in line with evolving priorities such as sustainability and innovation.

Index structure