What does the last energy shock tell us?

The last time oil and energy prices spiked was just after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022. Energy prices rocketed up 28% from February to March 2022, which in turn led to significant and rapid impacts on construction materials and supply chains. In 2026, we saw energy prices increase by more than 50% from February to March and they will continue to be volatile for the foreseeable future. A deal is now in place to end hostilities and re-open the Strait of Hormuz, but the future is far from certain. Even if the deal holds, it will take some time for vessels to reposition themselves, for refineries to ramp back to normal production and questions remain over the costs and insurance required to traverse the Strait.

Looking at how costs moved in 2022 in response to rising and volatile energy pricing, will help us understand what is likely to happen to construction costs now. It also shows that the impact will not be felt evenly. Some materials, equipment and projects will be more at risk than others.

The pages that follow look at what’s happening to prices in markets across the world, and what’s likely to happen next.