Cost trends
California wildfires impact construction material pricing across the nation
California wildfires have significant implications for construction costs and supply chains across the U.S., with 60% of the state's forests in high-risk wildfire areas and California supplying 10% of the nation's lumber. These fires drive up the cost of materials, especially lumber, with prices fluctuating between $475 and $625 per thousand board feet. Experts predict further increases of 25% to 40%, even before considering tariffs. The impact extends to other building materials, including insulation, drywall, steel, and concrete, due to increased demand and supply chain issues.
We anticipate that lumber costs in California will rise by 6% in the first six months following recent wildfires, while national prices are expected to increase by 3.5% in the first 3-6 months and by 15% over the next 15 months. Clients, contractors, and developers should secure materials early, negotiate fixed pricing, and include price adjustment clauses in contracts to manage cost fluctuations. Recommendations include diversifying material sources and maintaining flexibility with material choices.
For further details, the full analysis can be found here.
Key considerations
To manage cost fluctuations, clients, contractors, and developers should secure materials early, negotiate fixed pricing, or include price adjustment clauses in contracts. Diversifying material sources and staying flexible with material choices can also help reduce risk.
Globally, it's important to stay aware of potential market shifts without overreacting. Tariffs, for example, may lead material producers in affected countries to shift distribution away from the US. While this could increase supply elsewhere, it might also disrupt local supply chains.
These uncertainties highlight the need for resilience. While outcomes can’t be predicted exactly, analyzing risks and planning can help protect projects, maintain supply pipelines, and strengthen the industry.