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A world of uncertainty: The new normal in construction
Uncertainty is no longer short-term. It is now a permanent part of how the world works.
From inflation and geopolitical conflict to climate change and fast-moving technology, today’s pressures rarely appear on their own. They overlap and spread across industries and borders. A policy change in one region can disrupt supply chains in another. A climate event can delay projects far beyond its source.
Construction leaders face pressure on two sides. External shocks include rising costs, political risk and weather events. Internal issues range from outdated procurement to rushed design and unclear governance.
These risks do not stay separate. They connect and grow. When they collide, they increase costs, damage trust, and put delivery at risk. If we don’t control them, they only create more uncertainty.
We must stop planning for uncertainty and start building for it.
What’s driving uncertainty?
We surveyed over 1,000 senior decision-makers with direct responsibility for construction and infrastructure projects about their confidence in construction delivery and the impact of uncertainty on innovation, technology adoption, project goals, and sustainability. Almost 20% were from organisations employing over 10,000 people.
Our global data shows a clear picture; most construction leaders report major impacts on performance across multiple fronts:
Top global risk factors impacting project delivery
(% indicating ‘high impact’ on ability to meet project goals)
Material cost inflation
Energy price volatility
Supply chain disruption
Labour and skills shortages
Rapid technological innovation cost inflation
Planning and regulatory challenges
Economic policy changes
Borrowing costs
Geopolitical uncertainty
Climate and environmental risks
Each of these factors is disruptive on its own. But together, they create a complex risk landscape.
— Energy markets are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, climate policy, and unpredictable demand cycles. Volatility is the new norm.
— Supply chains are under pressure from a shift towards localisation, rising protectionism, and constrained capacity in key sectors. Delays and price spikes are accepted as inevitable.
— Labour shortages are getting worse. And it’s not just due to demographic change. Outdated regulation and surging demand for digital, specialist, and cross-sector skills are adding pressure.
Uncertainty is present at every stage of the project lifecycle, from planning and procurement to execution and close-out.
Are these pressures easing?
In short, no. Our data shows that most construction leaders expect things to get worse.
The message is clear. Uncertainty is accelerating.
Top global risk factors expected to worsen (next 12-24 months)
(% expecting situation to deteriorate)
Material cost inflation
Energy price volatility
Supply chain disruption
Rapid technological innovation
Economic policy changes
Borrowing costs
Planning and regulatory challenges
Climate and environmental risks
Labour and skills shortages
Geopolitical uncertainty
What does this mean for the industry?
Uncertainty is here to stay. The key differentiator today isn’t the level of risk a project faces. It’s the resilience of the organisation delivering it.
The old ways of managing risk, static forecasts, rigid procurement models, reactive mitigation strategies, no longer go far enough. They were built for stability. Not for volatility.
The industry now needs to flex, pivot, and adapt in real time. That means building robust scenario models. It means designing delivery frameworks that allow for change and making room for choices early on.
We must proactively build resilience from the very beginning.